Some polls show a close race and some are increasingly more heavily skewed to create an illusion of a landslide. The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Daily Tracking Pollreleased today shows President Obama andMitt Romney tied at 46 percent each.Rasmussen's daily tracking poll of 11 key swing states likewise shows the race tied at 46 percent for each candidate. Rasmussen Reports is by far the most accurate among the well-established polling firms. But a series of swing state polls done at the state level by mainstream media outlets reported yesterday and the day before were so heavily skewed that they are raising questions about the credibility of the media outlets and polling firms involved in them.
The chart above, from UnSkewedPolls.com, which is a source of analysis done by this columnist to shed light on the nature of these skewed polls, lists the recent swing state polls that will be analyzed here and shows their result, the degree of skew in the sample in favor of Democrats, the state polled, and the result fromunskewing the data from the poll.
Activists and partisans on the far left bitterly cling to these skewed polls because they are the only evidence they can cite that shows President Obama can be reelected. Some are so strident as to even suggest the specter of violence if they are not allowed to believe that Obama can win. Nearly all partisans on the right remained civil when the Republican nominee lost to Obama in 2008 and those on the left should be prepared to be civil should the voters choose Mitt Romneyas the next president.
CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac University released yesterday a series of polls of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania showing Obama leading by nine percent, 10 percent and nine percent in the three states respectively. But the samples used for these polls were skewed by eight to nine percent in favor of Democrats. When the data us unskewed for these polls, the result shows them tied or within the margin of error. That is far different than nearly double digit leads for Obama in all of them.